Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
